by Samuel P. Huntington

Content

I. THE NEXT PATTERN OF CONFLICT
II. THE NATURE OF CIVILIZATIONS
III. WHY CIVILIZATIONS WILL CLASH
IV. THE FAULT LINES BETWEEN CIVILIZATIONS
V. CIVILIZATION RALLYING
VI. THE WEST VERSUS THE REST
VII. THE TORN COUNTRIES
VIII. THE CONFUCIAN-ISLAMIC CONNECTION
IX. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WEST

I. THE NEXT PATTERN OF CONFLICT

• The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural.       > the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations
• the conflicts of the Western world were largely among princes -- emperors, absolute monarchs and constitutional monarchs        > between nations         > between ideologies
• conflicts between princes, nation states and ideologies were primarily conflicts within Western civilization        > between West and non-Western civilizations and among non-Western civilizations

II. THE NATURE OF CIVILIZATIONS

• COLD WAR the world was divided into the First, Second and Third Worlds
• A civilization is thus the highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species.           >  language, history, religion, customs, institutions, and by the subjective self-identification of people

III. WHY CIVILIZATIONS WILL CLASH

• world will be shaped in large measure by the interactions among seven or eightmajor civilizations. Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American and possibly African civilization.
• Why ?
• First, differences among civilizations are not only real; they are basic.        > by history, language, culture, tradition and, most important, religion > Differences do not necessarily mean conflict, and conflict does not necessarily mean violence.
• Second, the world is becoming a smaller place.         > The interactions among peoples of different civilizations enhance the civilization-consciousness of people that, in turn, invigorates differences and animosities stretching or thought to stretch back deep into history.
  Third, the processes of economic modernization and social change throughout the world are separating people from longstanding local identities.       > They also weaken the nation state
• The revival of religion, provides a basis for identity and commitment that transcends national boundaries and unites civilizations.
• Fourth, the growth of civilization-consciousness is enhanced by the dual role of the West.       > A de-Westernization and indigenization of elites is occurring in many non-Western countries at the same time that Western, usually American, cultures, styles and habits become more popular among the mass of the people.
• Fifth, cultural characteristics and differences are less mutable and hence less easily compromised and resolved than political and economic ones.         > Even more than ethnicity, religion discriminates
• Finally, economic regionalism is increasing.          > On the one hand, successful economic regionalism will reinforce civilization-consciousness. On the other hand, economic regionalism may succeed only when it is rooted in a common civilization.           > NAFTA & JAPAN
• Culture and religion also form the basis of the Economic Cooperation Organization,
• Decreasingly able to mobilize support and form coalitions on the basis of ideology, governments and groups will increasingly attempt to mobilize support by appealing to common religion and civilization identity.
• clash of civilizations thus occurs at two levels             > At the micro-level, adjacent groups along the fault lines between civilizations struggle, often violently, over the control of territory and each other. At the macro-level, states from different civilizations compete for relative military and economic power, struggle over the control of international institutions and third parties, and competitively promote their particular political and religious values.

IV. THE FAULT LINES BETWEEN CIVILIZATIONS

• THE FAULT LINES between civilizations are replacing the political and ideological boundaries of the Cold War     > the Iron Curtain     > Western Christianity & Orthodox Christianity and Islam

• This centuries-old military interaction between the West and Islam is unlikely to decline     > Western democracy strengthens anti-Western political forces
• relationship complicated by demography     > population growth in Arab countries increased migration to Europe countries
• The West's "next confrontation," observes M. J. Akbar, an Indian Muslim author, "is definitely going to come from the Muslim world.
• great antagonistic interaction of Arab Islamic civilization has been with the pagan, animist, and now increasingly Christian black peoples to the south. In the past, this antagonism was epitomized in the image of Arab slave dealers and black slaves    > modernization of Africa and the spread of Christianity are likely to enhance the
  probability of violence along this fault line.
• northern border of Islam, conflict between Orthodox and Muslim            > Muslim and Hindu
• underlying differences between China and the United States have reasserted themselves in areas such as human rights, trade and weapons proliferation.
• between Japan and the United States. cultural difference exacerbates economic conflict.
• the Eurasian continent, however, the proliferation of ethnic conflict, epitomized at the extreme in "ethnic cleansing," has not been totally random.

V. CIVILIZATION RALLYING

• KIN-COUNTRY SYNDROME GROUPS OR STATES as the principal basis for cooperationand coalitions.
• A world of clashing civilizations, however, is inevitably a world of double standards: people apply one standard to their kin-countries and a different standard to others.
• civilization. Such conflicts, however, are likely to be less intense and less likely to expand
• In the coming years, the local conflicts most likely to escalate into major wars will be those, as in Bosnia and the Caucasus, along the fault lines between civilizations. The next
  world war, if there is one, will be a war between civilizations.

VI. THE WEST VERSUS THE REST

• "the world community"     > interests of the United States and other Western powers.     > West promotes its economic interests and imposes on other nations the economic policies it thinks appropriate.
• Western ideas of individualism, liberalism, constitutionalism, human rights, equality, liberty, the rule of law, democracy, free markets, the separation of church and state, often have little resonance in Islamic, Confucian, Japanese, Hindu, Buddhist or Orthodox cultures.    > The very notion that there could be a "universal civilization" is a Western idea, directly at odds with the particularism of most Asian societies and their emphasis on what distinguishes one people from another.  
• "the values that are most important in the West are least important worldwide."
• pursue a course of isolation, to insulate their societies from penetration or "corruption" by the West, and, in effect, to opt out of participation in the Western-dominated global community. The costs of this course, however, are high, and few states have pursued it exclusively. A second alternative, the equivalent of "band-wagoning" in international relations theory, is to attempt to join the West and accept its values and institutions. The third alternative is to attempt to "balance" the West by developing economic and military power and cooperating with other non-Western societies against the West, while preserving indigenous values and institutions; in short, to modernize but not to Westernize.

VII. THE TORN COUNTRIES

• such as the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, are candidates for dismemberment.
• To redefine its civilization identity, a torn country must meet three requirements. First, its political and economic elite has to be generally supportive of and enthusiastic about the move. Second, its public has to be willing to acquiesce in the redefinition. Third, the dominant groups in the recipient civilization have to be willing to embrace the convert.

VIII. THE CONFUCIAN-ISLAMIC CONNECTION

• In the post-Cold War world the primary objective of arms control is to prevent the development by non-Western societies of military capabilities that could threaten Western interests. The West attempts to do this through international agreements
• The West promotes nonproliferation as a universal norm and nonproliferation treaties and inspections as means of realizing that norm.
• "Don't fight the United States unless you have nuclear weapons."
• In an old-fashioned arms race, each side developed its own arms to balance or to achieve superiority against the other side. In this new form of arms competition, one side is developing its arms and the other side is attempting not to balance but to limit and prevent that arms build-up while at the same time reducing its own military capabilities.

IX. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WEST

• successful political, security and economic international institutions are more likely to develop within civilizations than across civilizations
• escalation that could lead to global wars
• Non-Western civilizations have attempted to become modern without becoming Western.
• require the West to develop a more profound understanding of the basic religious and philosophical assumptions underlying other civilizations and the ways in which people in those civilizations see their interests. It will require an effort to identify elements of commonality between Western and other civilizations. For the relevant future, there will be no universal civilization, but instead a world of different civilizations, each of which will have to learn to coexist with the others.